Another TA attempt on HIVE

in LeoFinance •  3 months ago  (edited)

The last time I did a TA on HIVEBTC, it went terribly wrong. At that point, HIVE just did a retracement to the 50% fibonacci level and I expected HIVE to rebound from that point to the 9300 sats or even the 10000 sats level. Luckily I have my usual caveats and also mentioned that I am not someone who likes to analyze such a "young" chart and on the 4H time-frame 😅.

With everything now in the rear-view mirror, it is clear that I was wrong in calling for a rebound so soon. HIVE went all the way down to the 3500 sats level without any kind of rebound in between. After which, the rebound finally came but it was too little too late and it only brought the price briefly back to the 5300 sats level as shown in the chart below.

HIVEBTC 4H Chart

While I got the price target of the rebound wrong, I am actually not too far off in my longer term price support of 3500 sats. I wrote,

... I think it will eventually find a strong support at the 200 SMA on the 4H chart. It should be around 3500 sats by then and notice how it coincides with the 1.618 fibonacci extension level.

However, if you now look a little closer, the 200 SMA support was also broken and the price is now hovering at the 250 SMA instead. If this 250 SMA does not hold, there will no longer be any meaningful SMA levels that I can use because there is simply insufficient historical data.

200 SMA broken and HIVE now hanging on to the 250 SMA on 4H chart

If I have sold some HIVE during the pump or I want to add on to my longer term hodlings, I will now want to look at potential accumulation zones so that I can formulate by accumulation strategy. Under such circumstance, previous zones will serve as a good guide. Accumulation zones are basically an extended period of sideway action. In the chart below, I have marked the potential accumulation zones, in my opinion, with red, yellow and green rectangles.

Potential accumulation zones

The red zone is where we are now. We have seen sideway actions for a little while now and this is one potential price range (between 3300 - 3800 sats) to buy. The yellow zone is one where we saw the first extended sideway action after HIVE was listed. This is between 2500 to 3000 sats. Finally the green zone is one where we saw an extended sideway action after the sudden dump on 6th Apr and it is between 1300 - 1900 sats. I am unable to recall what happened on 6th Apr which led to the dump, so if you do know what caused it, please let me know in the comment section.

So if I were to buy more HIVE, I will certainly want to buy most of it in the green zone. Hence, I would split my orders into 3 parts, 25%-25%-50%. Assuming I want to buy 0.1 BTC worth of HIVE, I will then buy 0.025 BTC at the red zone, 0.025 BTC at the yellow zone and 0.05 BTC at the green zone. This is simply to manage risk.

However, with all that being said, I wasn't lucky enough to sell during the pump as most of my HIVE was powered up. In addition, I also do not want to add on to my HIVE hodlings as I think I have enough for now. Hence, I will rather wait for reversal signals to do some kind of a short-term trade.

RSI, MFI and MACD

For reversals, I personally love to trade divergences and look for further confirmation in the MACD. As you can see from the chart above, there is no divergence on the RSI, but there is a slight bullish divergence on the MFI. The MACD seems to indicate a potential momentum shift but the signal is still too weak. Therefore, I will sit on the sidelines for now and wait for a stronger signal.

To conclude, I do not see any form of strong reversal signals now. Thus the price of HIVE is likely to remain sideways or even move further down. I hope the 250 SMA level can hold and if it doesn't, it might spell more trouble for HIVE price in the short term.

Again, I am just sharing my thought process and please do not take it as financial advice. Due diligence and research are still required for your own investment. What do you think will happen to HIVE price next? Leave a comment and let me know 😁.


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