When should I sell my STEEM?steemCreated with Sketch.

in LeoFinance •  2 months ago  (edited)

As someone who plans to completely migrate over to Hive, one of my big questions is, when do I sell my STEEM 🤔? After I sell my STEEM, I want to convert a portion of it into HIVE. Hence, the ideal situation for me is to see STEEM temporarily outperform HIVE in terms of price so that I can accumulate more HIVE with the same amount of STEEM.

STEEMBTC Daily

From the daily chart, I see that STEEM had bounced from the green trend line which acted as a support on multiple occasions. Notice that during the last pump, STEEM price bounced from the supporting trend line and then broke the triangle pattern. After which, the strong pump followed. We are now seeing a similar pattern.

In addition, I am also seeing a slight bullish divergence in the money flow index. This might signal a reversal in price which was also seen prior to the last pump.

STEEMBTC Moving Averages Convergence Feb-May 2020

STEEMBTC Moving Averages Convergence May 2017

Looking at the moving averages, we can see a convergence of the 50d, 100d and 200d simple moving averages with the 200d SMA turning positive. The last time this happened was in May 2017. Following that, there was a strong up move for a period of time. On this, one might argue that we have already seen that strong move in April and I agree. However, I see that the current STEEM price held on to the 200d SMA as support pretty well, which is rather bullish in my opinion. Hence, I think there could be another wave of upward movement.


Steem Hardfork 23

The recent Steem HF 23 reduced powering down period from 13 weeks to 4 weeks. While that is music to my ears (since I want to sell), it is certainly not a good thing for STEEM price in the short term. The reason is simple, there are many Hivers who will be powering down their STEEM Power and making market orders to sell.

The selling pressure is evident if you look at the 4H chart as it has been making lower lows from the 27 May onwards (27th May would be the first batch of liquid STEEM from SP if someone powered down on 20 May, the day of HF23).

STEEMBTC 4H Chart

My point is that this selling pressure will dissipate as Hivers who are doing market sell finish selling after about 4-5 weeks post-HF23. Hence, I think STEEM price might have already reached a local bottom, if not, the next lower low would be the near-term bottom.


Quick TA on HIVEBTC

HIVE chart is also looking good. Again, it is difficult to do a good TA on a chart with such a short history. But if I look at the bollinger band, I see that it is narrowing and moving sideway. This indicates some kind of accumulation with a potential for a big move quite soon. When coupled with it holding on to a support level (e.g. the yellow trend line) it is overall a bullish sign in my opinion.

HIVEBTC Daily Chart


Conclusion

I think there is a strong possibility for STEEM to move upwards in the coming weeks. However, I am not sure if it will outperform HIVE in the short-term. For now, I think my best strategy is to still wait for STEEM to move up while I wait for all my Steem Power to be powered down.

Again this is just my thought process and please do not take it as financial advice. Due diligence and research are still required for your own investment. Have you sold all your STEEM or are you also waiting for a better price? Let me know in the comments section.


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I convert Once 4 week. Better to spread out the risk than hope for One Good sell.
Thats My opinion.

That is a good way too. Why be bothered by the price? Haha.. 👍

I'll be waiting for Justin's pumps... It is irrational to think otherwise as Justin is more and more aware of the fact steem has failed due to his "intervention", therefore it is obvious he has to get out until his investment fade away. I think in around 2 weeks or so

I hope Justin will pump STEEM as well. But he seemed to have lost interest in this new toy

I used to care about what the price of steem will say before, all so that I could get more hive with it, I've been getting stable currency instead so that i can wait for a good buy in time for Hive, though I think i lost the chance at 0.24

Fair point. It also makes sense to switch to stablecoins and just to wait for a general correction in the crypto market

I am also waiting for my steem power down to fully complete.

Just wondering if Justin will able to pump steem or dump hive? Just on my gut feeling with no logic at all.

I hope he pumps STEEM. I think he would have dumped his HIVE, if he has any, during the massive recent pump

How massive was 'this recent dump'? Please

These PDs are disrupting things for sure - I think there's been a lot money from PDs flowing into Splinterlands and LEO recently - I'm buying in both, just in case of a crazy spike sometime soon, but only very gradually, and actually holding off buying-in to Hive with most of PD until after June, most of those PDs will be done by July.

Then we'll see!

Ah.. You point out an interesting investment to buy into LEO instead of HIVE 🤔

Technical analysis on a low volume trading crypto coin is just pointless. Remember hive suddenly being worth 80 cents for some days...

Fair point. Probably just a bad habit of mine to always look at the price before selling. Haha..

Please inform me when I should sell it hahaah. Trust you

Haha.. thanks for your trust but now I feel a little stressed because of that 😅

It is distracting to have to worry about STEEM price relative to HIVE. My power downs are dictated by the 4 week period and by some leases that are spaced a month apart. In all, I am looking at another two months of power downs. This week will be my last from a prior power down.

I'll trust that the three months of transfers are sufficient dollar cost averaging to migrate all my STEEM. The amounts of STEEM are far from life-changing. Thus, I'm not too concerned about the exchange rate. I haven't looked at your wallet. Perhaps you have significant, life-changing quantities of STEEM that require more deliberation. Best of luck.

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My STEEM amount is certainly not life-changing. But I have a bad habit of always seeking ways to optimize and squeeze that little bit of alpha. Haha..