Thoughts on Hive Price Action: Ranging markets or Accumulation phase?

in LeoFinance •  2 months ago  (edited)

A few thoughts on HIVE after watching it failing to break upwards of 28 cents and get into a range. Overall, I think its definitely better than seeing it make another leg down on higher time frame.

Bitcoin has been in a range for the last 45-50 days or so now which has allowed many alt coins to have strong rallies. HIVE of-course hasn't quite done that yet. It has successfully shed value from its ATH of $1 all the way down to 23 cents for now.

RE212uel.png

This is one of my charts, not my main chart but I have a few levels marked out on the four hourly to discuss here.

You can see how the price failed to break out of the triangle and seems to have gotten into a channel pattern. You can also see a double bottom here on the lowest horizontal support line. It's better visible on the 12 hourly chart below.

pVSniVn3.png

I feel HIVE is better traded on 4 hourly or higher time frames. You could certainly trade it on lower time frame like hourly or all the way down to 15 minutes but then it gets volatile and choppier as you go lower.

It looks illiquid on Binance in comparison to MXC where the candle bodies have some shape compared to Binance at 1 min time frame. I mean for reference you can scalp 1 min time frame on something like Bitcoin with its tight spreads and great liquidity.

But something like HIVE is better off traded on 60 mins or higher. 15 mins looks fine to me but everyone has a different style and approach to trading. My perspective might be opposite to yours which is fine. Whatever helps us navigate these markets effectively is good.

Screenshot 2020-06-16 at 11.14.11 PM.png

1 minute chart on MXC

Screenshot 2020-06-16 at 11.05.49 PM.png

No average user in crypto trades large volumes where liquidity becomes an issue for them. So feel free to ignore my comments on Binance vs MXC (on lower timeframe) as it may not be relevant to most people.

Anyway, it does help one slow down their trading when you switch to higher time frame. There's less panic and FOMO. You have ample time to consider your precise entries and decide on limit or market orders for the same.

In a ranging market, prices tend to revisit their previous swing highs or swing lows. So it helps to have an actionable trade plan ready in advance for these scenarios.

In case of highly volatile coins like HIVE which have a tendency to pump 15-20% randomly and then give back these gains just as quickly I like to capture 12%-15% or greater moves. Scalps are generally not worth the time and risk on certain alts.

Example: You can capture 1% on Bitcoin even with a $100K or larger orders and not shake the market but you can't do that with small alts like HIVE.

Here's the famous Wyckoff accumulation schematic courtesy StockCharts.com in case you want to draw some parallels on price action.

wyckoffaccumulation.png

This is not to imply that we're in an accumulation phase but should we remain in a range for a while and then break above with strength then it would confirm this accumulation hypothesis.

For now I am happy to see price rejecting 23 cents and pushing up. But on the daily time frame I would like HIVE to get over 27 cents again and continue to make a higher lower. We've tested the low twice already.

I wouldn't mind another touch of 23c zone for a triple bottom after a few days but it would be best if we don't get there again. Because, should that happen coupled with a strong move down from Bitcoin, then we're likely to push further below.

Everything on this post is just my opinion, not financial advice. We should always be careful with our hard earned money.

Anyway, let's see where we get in a week or two from now. I'm not particularly thrilled with HIVE price action for now. Needless to say, I want to see some buy-side strength soon!

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Well... I’m in a stage of accumulation hive and hive power in particular. The most I hold, the better. I really hope to see Hive at the 30 cents and even greater in a longer period. Why not even more? But for now $0,3-$0,35 is maybe a reasonable price.

I think 40c and even 50c would be a fair value for the token and lead to a healthy market cap for the network in the short term 3-4 months. It's a decent time-frame to accomplish this. Especially given how much some alts have moved in the last 2 months.

We can revisit 3-4 months down and see how far we've come-I hope it will be a positive outcome.