Can you buy DEC to purchase Orbs and Profit? A quick look at my ROI so far - and an argument that I should go in deep.

in spt •  last year 

image.png

I like to play the edge a bit sometimes and see if the ROI is worth the risk.

It sounds a bit risky, but like all investments, only play with what you can afford to lose.

Here are few assumptions I used - and may have made a simple mistake. Please tell me in the comments if I did not factor something in.
I assume I can immediately sell every card for the lowest listed BCX with no loss of exchange rates. I am also ignoring and exchange fees that may occur for buying DEC.

I do factor in the 5% loss of card value. When you sell 5% goes the market that sold the card to help support the hosts. This analysis is for only 8 ORB's since it is all that I have bought. I will update as time tells, but the sample size is small.

Below are the values and prices for the analysis.

  • STEEM is $0.272
  • DEC is $0.001
  • Molten Ogre $0.071
  • Gold Foil Molten Ogre $1.944
  • Enchagned Defender $0.100
  • Gold Foil Enchagned Defender $2.100
  • Dwarven Wizard $3.494
  • Goblin Chef $0.125
  • Undead Archer $0.300
  • Mermaid healer $2.595
  • Eletric Eels $0.370
  • Armorsmith $0.220

Establishing a cost

Each Orb costs 2500 DEC, so each card you open is 500 DEC, and at the this conversion rate each card costs $0.50. Not too bad, but if each Orb is $2.50

I then compare each card I have opened in 8 packs so far and compare the lowest listed BCX on the market. and subtract the initial "investment"

Gain Loss by ORB

image.png

Gain Loss By Card

image.png

  • Total Purchase Price in STEEM for the ORBS: 73.52941176
  • Total Profit/(Loss) STEEM: 12.25
  • ROI in STEEM: 16.66%

Thoughts

Wow - that is better than I thought. I wonder if I am doing something wrong......I think they might be a few factors. I have gotten some really really good cards, and I am not sure that can continue. The promo cards have really strong pricing, and it only seems to keep going up. I need to acquire a lot of them just to make them playable for me. If the pricing continues.

This could be a great investment and way to generate more STEEM, but I doubt I will pursue it. I know I am a splinterlands junkie who manually plays multiple accounts. If I got good cards, I would not sell, I would combine and play them. If I got gold legendary, I might sell it, but the rest are all going to be held like the rest of my cards...

Its bad when you know you can make an investment and turn a profit, but I know I will get high on my own supply. I would just end up spending all my liquid STEEM to support my habit. It is already hard enough to level up slowly considering how expensive cards are getting. I might have to start to look at leasing!!.

The only way I would do this is to run this with someone I trust go partner. That way they are not my cards - but a true investment that can have a big return.

If I knew the drop rates, I might be able to do all the math on the average expected return, but I am not clear on Gold, and Legendary, and Gold Legendary etc.

Side note, what we will use DEC for once all the ORBs are gone?

image.png

I only need 394,772,500 more DEC (or $394K) to buy them out Who is with me to make a move and buy up all the cards!!!

Holy Crap Beta is low too!!

image.png

I will be screwed with like level 8 cards in Beta and have to convert them down a level, or rent them out and start fresh. Ugh.

Game on!! ~Senstless~

SteemSilverGold--Banner.png


Follow me on Weku
Follow me on Steemit
Follow me on Whaleshares
Follow me on Trybe
Follow me on Narrative

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

You have received 5x upvotes from the members of @steemexplorers from your free link submission in our discord server. Steemexplorers is an initiative bringing information on various Steemit services and communities in a central discord to save you time and help you grow. It's free, it's easy, and it's here to help you in so many ways. Come by our discord to learn more! Link to Discord: https://discord.gg/6QrMCFq. Our team also offers an additional upvoting service called @givememonsters where you can presently trade in 1 to 10 DEC from the Steem Monsters game for up to $0.03 upvotes on ANY steemit posts. The vote purchasing value here is some of the best returns on your investments that you can find anywhere so come by and visit this service today!

Really interesting look at utilizing orbs! I think you donsonwell at ypur Splinterland investments because you do enjoy playing so much. Thanks for sharing!

Posted using Partiko Android

Thats true I enjoy the game a lot right now. It's easier to spend the time and money on something you like!

You got voted by @curationkiwi thanks to senstless! This bot is managed by KiwiJuce3 and run by Rishi556, you can check both of them out there. To receive upvotes on your own posts, you need to join the Kiwi Co. Discord and go to the room named #CurationKiwi. Submit your post there using the command "!upvote (post link)" to receive upvotes on your post. CurationKiwi is currently supported by donations from users like you, so feel free to leave an upvote on our posts or comments to support us!
We have also recently added a new whitelist feature for those who would like to support CurationKiwi even more! If you would like to receive upvotes more than 2x greater than the normal upvote, all you need to do is delegate 50 SP to @CurationKiwi using this link.

This post has received a 3.13 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @curationkiwi.

This is an amazing post. I don't know WTF is going on but you are definitely #winning!

Ask your kids, they can explain it to you gramps!

D'oh!

I am saving all my DEC for the moment, to go for the big portions. Will need some more time to achieve this!
It will be all or nothing!
Hope to achieve Gold I again this season. Around a day to go and 100 rating points are needed!
Cheers,
Peter

Good luck!, I just hit Diamond 1 this season, and Gold 3 in most my other accounts. Overall its been pretty good, but the falling price of STEEM has made it hard to buy cards right now.

It is indeed a sellers market at the moment. I was saving up cards for this moment. I will for sure sell some. I am still 295 steem down at the moment, so it is time to decrease the losses :)

The odds on cards are

75.2% - Common
20% - Rare
4% - Epic
0.8% - Legendary
Each card has a 2% chance turning Gold

You can check it out yourself on the steemmonsters discord server
https://discord.gg/66H37q

Where you can go to # SM_VOTERS_HUT channel and write $drop