I like to play the edge a bit sometimes and see if the ROI is worth the risk.
It sounds a bit risky, but like all investments, only play with what you can afford to lose.
Here are few assumptions I used - and may have made a simple mistake. Please tell me in the comments if I did not factor something in.
I assume I can immediately sell every card for the lowest listed BCX with no loss of exchange rates. I am also ignoring and exchange fees that may occur for buying DEC.
I do factor in the 5% loss of card value. When you sell 5% goes the market that sold the card to help support the hosts. This analysis is for only 8 ORB's since it is all that I have bought. I will update as time tells, but the sample size is small.
Below are the values and prices for the analysis.
- STEEM is $0.272
- DEC is $0.001
- Molten Ogre $0.071
- Gold Foil Molten Ogre $1.944
- Enchagned Defender $0.100
- Gold Foil Enchagned Defender $2.100
- Dwarven Wizard $3.494
- Goblin Chef $0.125
- Undead Archer $0.300
- Mermaid healer $2.595
- Eletric Eels $0.370
- Armorsmith $0.220
Establishing a cost
Each Orb costs 2500 DEC, so each card you open is 500 DEC, and at the this conversion rate each card costs $0.50. Not too bad, but if each Orb is $2.50
I then compare each card I have opened in 8 packs so far and compare the lowest listed BCX on the market. and subtract the initial "investment"
Gain Loss by ORB
Gain Loss By Card
- Total Purchase Price in STEEM for the ORBS: 73.52941176
- Total Profit/(Loss) STEEM: 12.25
- ROI in STEEM: 16.66%
Wow - that is better than I thought. I wonder if I am doing something wrong......I think they might be a few factors. I have gotten some really really good cards, and I am not sure that can continue. The promo cards have really strong pricing, and it only seems to keep going up. I need to acquire a lot of them just to make them playable for me. If the pricing continues.
This could be a great investment and way to generate more STEEM, but I doubt I will pursue it. I know I am a splinterlands junkie who manually plays multiple accounts. If I got good cards, I would not sell, I would combine and play them. If I got gold legendary, I might sell it, but the rest are all going to be held like the rest of my cards...
Its bad when you know you can make an investment and turn a profit, but I know I will get high on my own supply. I would just end up spending all my liquid STEEM to support my habit. It is already hard enough to level up slowly considering how expensive cards are getting. I might have to start to look at leasing!!.
The only way I would do this is to run this with someone I trust go partner. That way they are not my cards - but a true investment that can have a big return.
If I knew the drop rates, I might be able to do all the math on the average expected return, but I am not clear on Gold, and Legendary, and Gold Legendary etc.
Side note, what we will use DEC for once all the ORBs are gone?
I only need 394,772,500 more DEC (or $394K) to buy them out Who is with me to make a move and buy up all the cards!!!
Holy Crap Beta is low too!!
I will be screwed with like level 8 cards in Beta and have to convert them down a level, or rent them out and start fresh. Ugh.
Game on!! ~Senstless~
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